For the first time, the pipeline of new generation and storage projects waiting to join the National Electricity Market is bigger than the capacity already on the system, according to AEMO.
Australia now has more new energy projects lining up to connect to its main grid than it has generating capacity today. The latest data from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) shows the queue has crossed that line for the first time, and big batteries make up more than half of it.
The Numbers Behind the Milestone
AEMO’s latest Connections Scorecard shows 80.9 gigawatts (GW) of generation and storage projects currently going through the process of connecting to the National Electricity Market (NEM). That is more than the 77 GW of capacity already installed on the system.
The queue kept growing in the September quarter. AEMO says another 25 connection applications were lodged, seeking a combined 7.5 GW. Of those, 19 were battery projects totalling 5.8 GW, or 76% of the new applications.
Across the full pipeline, batteries dominate. They account for 55% of the capacity moving through the connection process, from application to commissioning. Hybrid solar and battery projects follow at 19%, then wind at 15%, solar at 5%, hydro at 5% and gas at 1%.
Longer-Duration Storage Is on the Rise
AEMO says the mix is shifting in a useful direction. “Not only are we seeing more battery projects, but also increasing amounts of longer-duration storage,” said James Lindley, the operator’s group manager of onboarding and connections.
Lindley said nearly 40% of the battery projects in the queue are proposing three to 10 hours of storage. That kind of duration can “enhance energy resilience when renewable generation output is low”, he said.
A Long Queue Is Not the Same as a Built Project
Lindley was careful to separate a healthy pipeline from guaranteed delivery. Not every project will move at the same pace, he noted, and some will not make it at all.
The data backs that up. The vast majority of the queue, 88%, is still in the early application and proponent implementation stages.
What Actually Moved in the September Quarter?
AEMO reported progress at several stages of the process:
- Approved applications: 23 projects with a combined 4.5 GW received grid connection application approval.
- Registered and connected: Four projects, totalling 1 GW, were registered and connected to the NEM.
- Commissioning completed: Seven projects worth a combined 1.3 GW finished commissioning and reached full output.
- Batteries: Four battery projects reached effective registration, with total discharge capacity of 1 GW and storage capacity of 3.4 GWh.
One entry stands out in the approvals. AEMO’s scorecard lists one compressed air project of 0.2 GW. That refers to the September connection approval of the 200 MW Silver City Energy Storage project, which can run for up to eight hours (1,600 MWh). It is part of what has been described as a world-first renewable energy mini-grid that will help power Broken Hill in New South Wales.
Victoria Leads on New Batteries
Among NEM states, Victoria made the biggest contribution to projects reaching full output this quarter. It accounted for half of those that completed the journey, all of them big batteries, with a combined 800 MW and 1.3 GWh of storage capacity.
That includes the 240 MW, 480 MWh Mornington battery energy storage system, which officially reached its full nameplate capacity in the final days of September.
Why Reliability Is the Real Story?
Lindley framed the queue in terms of reliability rather than records. “It’s critical for electricity reliability that projects continue to advance to commissioning,” he said, pointing out that around 15 GW of generation is scheduled to retire over the coming decade, while electricity consumption is forecast to rise by more than 40%.
AEMO says it is doing its part to keep projects moving, through reforms aimed at streamlining registration, strengthening technical frameworks and making connection outcomes more transparent and predictable. Much remains outside its control, however. State and federal approvals, changes in ownership or design, and delays in finalising commercial arrangements can all slow a project down.
What to Watch Next?
A queue this large shows strong investor appetite, particularly for storage. The test is conversion: how many of the projects now sitting in early stages actually reach commissioning, and how quickly, as older plants retire and demand grows. The next Connections Scorecard will show whether the pipeline is turning into real capacity on the grid.
