Renewables to Dominate Global Electricity by 2035, Says Statkraft
Renewable energy is on course to become the world’s leading source of electricity by 2035, according to the Green Transition Scenarios 2026 report from Norwegian energy company Statkraft. The report credits solar and wind power, along with larger grids and more energy storage, for the shift.
Electricity Demand Set for Sharp Growth
Statkraft looked at four possible pathways for the global, European and Norwegian energy systems between 2026 and 2050. Across those scenarios, global electricity consumption is expected to rise by 50 to more than 100 per cent by 2050.
The company argues that electricity is becoming central to economic growth, industrial competitiveness and energy security, especially for countries that depend on imported fossil fuels. Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø, head of Global Energy Drivers at Statkraft and a co-author of the report, said that in a world of geopolitical tension and trade barriers, electricity is turning into the foundation for competitiveness, energy security and industrial growth.
Why Electrification Drives the Transition?
The report names electrification as one of the main forces behind the energy transition. Electric vehicles, heat pumps and similar technologies replace less efficient fossil fuel options, and the efficiency gains are large:
- Electric vehicles use 60 to 90 per cent less energy than internal combustion engine vehicles.
- Heat pumps can cut the energy needed for heating by 50 to 80 per cent.
Emissions Near a Peak, But Climate Targets Remain Out of Reach
According to Statkraft, global energy-related CO₂ emissions are close to peaking and should fall towards 2050. The reductions range from 20 to 56 per cent depending on the scenario.
That progress still falls short of what climate science demands. Even the greenest scenario does not meet the 1.5°C target. The least ambitious scenario points to warming below 2.7°C with a 67 per cent probability, and the report says emissions cuts would need to speed up after 2050 for that to hold.
Europe: Progress, But Still Dependent on Imports
In the European Union, renewables supplied 48 per cent of electricity generation in 2025, up from 38 per cent in 2021. Even so, the EU still imports 57 per cent of its energy. Statkraft says this is why Europe needs to build more domestic renewable generation and electrify faster.
The report lists grids, storage and system flexibility as the main challenges for Europe’s transition.
AI and Data Centres Add a New Demand Question
Artificial intelligence and data centres are expected to push electricity demand higher. Across the scenarios, data centres could account for 6 to 9 per cent of total EU electricity consumption by 2050. How much they actually use will depend on AI adoption, efficiency improvements, grid access and local acceptance.
Bolkesjø said the speed at which new generation and grid capacity can be built will be decisive for where, and how fast, new data centres are established.
Norway: Rich in Resources, Short on Speed
Norway already generates 98 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources, yet Statkraft warns that slow development of new capacity could shrink the country’s power surplus. Annual generation is projected to fall between 176TWh and 253TWh by 2050, depending mostly on how much wind power is built.
For comparison, Norway has added around 6GW of generation capacity since 2021, while Sweden has added 13GW. Hydropower is expected to stay dominant, providing 60 to 80 per cent of Norwegian generation in 2050. Onshore wind, backed by flexible hydropower, could add a lot of electricity at competitive cost, and grid upgrades and interconnectors will be important for security of supply.
Mari Grooss Viddal, head analyst and report co-author, said Norway’s challenge is not a lack of resources. It is whether new generation and grid capacity can be developed fast enough to meet rising demand and keep industry competitive.
What This Means?
The report’s message is consistent across its scenarios: cheap renewable power is arriving, but the grids, storage and permitting needed to use it are the real bottleneck. These are forecasts from one energy company, built on assumptions, so they should be read as scenarios and not as predictions.
